The Mets are reportedly in agreement with free agent starter on a one-year, $13MM guarantee. The deal also includes $2MM in performance bonuses. Severino, who is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, would receive $500K for reaching 27 starts and $750K apiece for his 29th and 31st start. Severino, 30 in February, is a wild card of this winters free agent market. He once looked like one of the best pitchers in the majors but has spent the past five years either injured or ineffective or both. He made 63 starts over 2017 and 2018, throwing 384 2/3 innings with a 3.18 earned run average. He punched out 28.8% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them and keeping 45.8% of balls in play on the ground. FanGraphs calculated him as worth 11 wins above replacement over that two-year span, trailing just four pitchers around the league: , , and . He and the Yankees agreed to a four-year, $40MM extension prior to 2019, with that deal also having a $15MM option for 2023. But shortly after that deal was signed, he ran into health problems. He only made three starts in the first year of that deal due to shoulder and lat injuries, then Tommy John surgery kept him off the field entirely in 2020 and for most of 2021. More lat i sues came in 2022, but he was at least able to make 19 starts and log 102 innings with a 3.18 ERA, followed by a couple of playoff starts. That relatively healthy showing was enough for the Yankees to trigger the player option for 2023. Another lat strain prevented him from making his season debut until May and then an oblique strain in September ended his season early. In the middle of those IL stints, he to sed 89 1/3 innings but with an awful 6.65 ERA. He struck out just 18.9% of opponents, a huge drop from his 27.7% rate in 2022. Severino averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball in 2023, a bit down from his Andrew Chafin Jersey 97.6 from 2018. Its higher than his 96.3 mph average from 2022, when he was still effective. His slider had a bigger drop, averaging 84.6 mph in this year whereas it sat 88-89 prior to his injury troubles. But he was still getting good results in 2022 with a slider that averaged 85.1 mph. Despite the rough season, some club was going to take a chance on Severinos track record and hope for a bounceback with better health. MLBTR predicted Severino to secure a contract of one-year and $14MM. His guarantee is just beneath that but the bonuses could help him climb to the other side. That the Mets are the club to take the chance on Severino makes plenty of sense, with from a couple of weeks ago suggesting they were interested. Last years struggles led them to trade and ahead of the deadline. Then reached free agency and required hip surgery that will force him to mi s the start of next season. All of that left the Mets with a 2024 rotation consisting of and in two spots. They had some candidates to fill out the back end, such as , and , but each of those guys can be optioned to the minors and make more sense as depth options than as part of the clubs Opening Day plans. Its still unclear exactly what kind of offseason the Mets are planning to have and this transaction wont make that much clearer. The 2023 club had the highest payroll in baseball history but from the deadline indicated that they may opt for a somewhat le s-aggre sive approach for 2024. But stepping back from unprecedented heights could still lead to plenty of activity, depending on the size of the step. This deal is fairly modest by free agent standards but could always be paired with a larger move. For example, the Cardinals were looking for three starters this winter and started with one-year deals for and before a bigger three-year strike on . Perhaps the Mets have a bigger move to come, having been connected to . But time will tell if that kind of big strike is realistically in their plans. For now, theyve added a former star on a short-term deal. He could either help them return to contention or perhaps turn himself into a deadline trade chip. If he isnt able to get back in good form, the Mets wont have impacted their plans for competing in the long term. In the short term, this seems like it will cost them more than the $13MM sticker price. According to , this move pushes the clubs competitive balance tax calculation to $288MM, well beyond next years base tax threshold of $237MM. The CBT features escalating penalties for paying in consecutive years and the Mets are set to be a third-time payor in 2024. That means they pay a 50% tax on all overages, 62% for spending over the $257MM line and 95% for going past the third line of $277MM. They could always shed salary somehow but they are already past the third line and not too far from the fourth line of $297MM, when their tax rate would jump to 110%. The tax isnt calculated until the end of the season, so they could significantly alter all of these calculations between now and next fall, but its distinctly po sible that they end up paying something close to double that $13MM figure that Severino will receive. first reported Severino was nearing agreement with the Mets. reported the sides were finalizing a one-year, $13MM deal that included $2MM in bonuses. reported the specific bonus structure. Buddy Bell Jersey